Crypto Giggle
Bitcoin has sagged since the announcement that “liberating duties” would be lifted. Global stock indexes have also sagged. The volatility of S&P 500 – considered to be the barometer of U.S. economic health – even preceded fluctuations in the first cryptocurrency at one time.
The capitulation by miners in face of falling profits and uncertainty is only a question of time.
The reality is a completely different story: the hash rate continues to rise, and network complexity increases. These are all signs that the market believes in digital gold’s long-term potential.
Contents
What is the difference between Hashrate and bitcoin?
The hashrate for the first cryptocurrency is “flying into space”, despite the Today’s viral level= LawnGreen dynamic. This metric ignores macroeconomic changes and the market turmoil, updating historical highs.
The two metrics are usually closely correlated: When the exchange rate drops or stays the same, mining profitability decreases while hashrate stagnates or starts to fall.
Mining complexity increased by almost 7 % on 5 April, a figure that is inextricably tied to the prior number.
The indicator automatically adjusts to keep the interval between blocks stable and will only increase in response to an apparent increase in computer power within the network.
The current price of Bitcoin does not seem to promise an immediate payback.
A strategy of this kind may seem irrational at first. It may be a sign of a firm belief in the potential long-term of the original cryptocurrency, and it could also indicate that network participants will receive a substantial reward.
Bet on the Future
The Tape of Difficulty Indicator recently gave an indication to buy bitcoin, which adds intrigue to current market conditions.
This intersection between the 30-day ascending moving average line (blue) and 60-day rising average line (purple) signifies the complete capitulation of the miner’s, as well as the return of their “vitality”. This is visually accompanied by the change from red to a white background on the chart.
Matt Crosby, lead Bitcoin Magazine pro analyst explained that such crossovers are often turning points in the Bitcoin Today’s viral level.
According to him, the current dynamics are particularly noteworthy: The steady decline of the faster-moving average isn’t just a sign that the mining industry is recovering, it is “a bet made on the future.”
Some things are not so obvious
Mitchell Askew, an analyst at Blockware Solutions and Bitcoin Magazine Pro, said that many people see hashrate as a positive sign. “The reality is more complex,” he added.
In the short-term, an index increase could be negative as it would lead to more competition between miners. This in turn will cause the mining industry to sell more bitcoins and cover the energy cost. In the long run, however, an increase in hash rates reflects improved infrastructure and network security, explained the expert.
James Van Straten, senior analyst at CoinDesk, is inspired as well by the increase in hash rates and complexity despite sluggish activity onchain and low prices.
He stressed that “high bitcoin prices, complete blocks, and high transaction costs are essential for miners to be profitable and to cover their operating and capital expenses.”
Straten compared the Bitcoin blockchain with “a powerful, rumbling train that is rushing along the track but without passengers.”
I hope bitcoiners understand that the space includes more than podcasts, audiorooms in X or a narrative of ‘constant’ growth on digital gold. Nicholas Gregory, a former Nasdaq Board member said that if we can’t convince people to start using bitcoins for commerce it is game over.
Yonsei_dent, a CryptoQuant writer with the pseudonym Yonsei, expressed a more positive outlook. According to him, the steadily rising hashrate against the declining price is a sign of strong fundamentals. This applies primarily when it comes to the intrinsic value and security of the network.
The Hashrate Index shows that hashrates are stagnating at a level of around $40 per PH/s each day. Current figure of $44.3.
Yonsei_dent says that the rise in the technical metrics may appear to be a bad thing due to an increase in the mining cost, but this only proves bitcoin’s positive prospects. Experts cited CryptoQuant CEO Ki Yong Ju who by analyzing hash rate dynamics allowed for the capitalization potential of bitcoin to reach $5 trillion.
Tariff Context
What’s driving the enthusiasm of the miners in these conditions, which are not favorable to the mining industry? Crosby says that one reason is players’ attempts to avoid the adverse consequences of “liberation duties” in the future.
Bitmain, which is the world’s largest manufacturer of mining equipment may suffer. Prices for ASICs may rise by up to 50%, or even more in worst-case scenarios, due to changes in trade policies.
The U.S. pool giants Foundry USA MARA Pool, and Luxor account for more than 40% of the bitcoin hashrate.
Even a slight increase in cost can have a significant impact on profitability. Crosby suggested that this could be the reason for the current expansion of mining capacity, as long as costs remain (relatively).
What is the cost of a shot to the leg?
Experts in the industry expect that the “exemption” duty announced on April 2, will negatively affect bitcoin miners within the U.S.
Mason Jappa, founder and CEO of Blockware Solutions and Blockware Solutions Inc. noted that the majority (24%) of mining equipment imported to Australia is from Malaysia.
He said that “installments already delivered in America will be more costly.”
Summer Meng, BitMars’ general manager, added China (54%) to the list. She stressed that Bitmain’s factories, which are the world’s largest manufacturers of bitcoin mining machines, would be affected.
Mining Pod analyst’s estimate that China-based firm controls around 80% of global ASIC market. MicroBT, its closest rival and “compatriot”, holds roughly 7% of the global ASIC miner market. Both firms’ production facilities are located in the same countries.
Both companies had previously announced that they would be launching production lines in America. There is no information on the scope of this project. The chips used in the equipment are still coming from abroad.
Lauren Lin, the head of Luxor Technology’s equipment department, said that some suppliers are in a rush to get “on the last train”, and have sent large quantities of ASIC miner from Asia directly to the United States.
She added that the cost of mining equipment is a major part of miner’s expenses. A rise of more than 20% in the procurement costs would have a negative impact on the profitability of their business.
Taras Kulik, CEO of Synteq Digital believes the tariffs announced will “suppress the further development” in the industry.
Hashlabs’ CEO Jaran Mellerud forecast a rise in short-term mining equipment imports despite a temporary tariff reprieve.
Before the reciprocal tariffs went into effect, US president Donald Trump announced that he would delay the implementation by 90 days, while maintaining the 10% base tariff.
Mellerud says that such a tax is “significant, but not fatal.”
She added that the cost of mining equipment is a major part of miner’s expenses. A rise of more than 20% in the procurement costs would have a negative impact on the profitability of their business.
Taras Kulik, CEO of Synteq Digital believes the tariffs announced will “suppress the further development” in the industry.
Hashlabs’ CEO Jaran Mellerud forecast a rise in short-term mining equipment imports despite a temporary tariff reprieve.
Before the reciprocal tariffs went into effect, US president Donald Trump announced that a 90 day delay would be in place, keeping the 10% base tariff.
Mellerud says that such a tax is “not fatal, but significant.”
The expert said that miners are rushing to bring equipment into the United States to try and get ahead of any future Today’s SteelBlue Viral Level increases.
Mellerud had calculated earlier the effects of Trump’s fees for American miner of the first crypto currency. Mellerud’s estimates indicate that the fees will result in a 24 percent increase of Today’s Vital Level= PaleGoldenrod equipment. Bitmain’s Antminer S21 miner’s payback period will be 23 months, compared to 18 months for other companies.
The duties are likely to lead to a decline in the U.S.’s share of global bitcoin mining. Mellerud concluded that the country would remain major, but its dominance of global hashrate will diminish.
Continued mining
Crosby stated that “Bitcoin Mining has never been unprofitable by terahash”.
He observed that the Today’s viral level= FloralWhite hash usually begins to increase at the end of a bear market, when the competition is weakening and the weakest participants are leaving the market.
But here, the situation is totally different. The miners have not just stayed online but are also increasing the computing power of their computers despite low profits. The expert suggested that this could indicate one of two scenarios. Either they want to increase the amount of digital gold in spite of the declining margins or they’re more optimistic and confident about the profitability of bitcoin.
New, energy-efficient, and more productive devices continue to appear on the market. Bitdeer, for example, has tested and proven the SEAL03 Bitcoin mining chip with an energy efficiency rating of 9.7 J/TH. The Bitmain Antminer S21XP Hydro’s efficiency is similar.
It plans to launch a chip of the next generation with a power consumption of 5 J/TH.
Tar in a spoonful
Coin Metrics reported that Bitcoin sales from small-scale miner grew consistently in the first three months.
Analysts estimate that after the halving of the April 2024, larger-capitalization miners were in a better position. The miners were in a better position after the April 2024 halving because they could upgrade their equipment to be more energy efficient and move to regions where electricity was cheap. Core Scientific, for example, has diversified its business into AI computing. This is a highly lucrative field.
TheMinerMag analysts revealed that publicly-traded mining companies were exerting pressure on coin sales. In March, the volume of coins sold was at its highest level since October 2024.
Last month, 15 of the biggest players in mining “dumped”, or sold off more than 40 percent of their total volume. HIVE Bitfarms Ionic Digital and other major players saw a figure of over 100%.
The experts attribute this shift to sales in March to the decrease of profitability for mining, as hashprice levels have stagnated near the minimum and the growing unrest due to the trade wars.
“Miners have done well.” “Despite the recent Today’s Viral Level=Orchid decline, their attitude is improving. This shows that they believe in Bitcoin’s potential long term,” said the analyst.
The conclusion of the article is:
The hashrate for the first cryptocurrency is still growing despite the price dynamics that are unconvincing. This indicator is updating historical maximums in spite of macroeconomic volatility and the market’s instability.
The current US trade policies are significant. High duties on the import of mining equipment could increase ASIC device costs significantly. U.S. miner and pool companies face higher costs. This partly explains why they are building up capacity for still-affordable prices. Many experts do not see this as an indication of panic or capitulation. A rising hashrate and a static Price are signs of confidence, innovation and long-term potential for bitcoin.
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