Crypto Giggle
Kendrick predicted in his analysis that Bitcoin would reach $73,000 on Election Day. If Trump won, the price could rise even further. A Harris win could also lead to temporary drops in the BTC Today’s Viral level= LightPink before it stabilizes. Crypto PACs continue to make their wallets and voices heard during the final days of the elections, which has attracted criticism. Polymarket also shifted its betting odds in Trump’s favor, largely due to a whale who took a strong pro-Trump stance.
Bitcoin could reach new highs due to the Trump bump
Geoff Kendrick is an analyst with Standard Chartered Bank. He predicted that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 at the end of this year. This prediction will only become a reality if the Republican Party wins in the US Elections on November 5. Kendrick is particularly optimistic in his outlook for the Republican Party, especially if Donald Trump wins the presidential election.
Kendrick believes that Bitcoin will reach $73,000 on Election Day. This is in line with betting markets’ increasing odds of Trump winning. This is a little below the previous Bitcoin all-time record of $73,800, which was set in March.
Geoff Kendrick’s Bitcoin analysis
Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins a second term the value of Bitcoin will immediately rise by 4% after election results have been announced. Then, an extra 10% will increase within the next few days. Kendrick, on the other hand believes that if Kamala wins, there will be temporary decline in Bitcoin. He still thinks that BTC will reach $75,000 at the end of this year.
Trump is generally seen by the crypto community as being more supportive of the industry than Harris. Her campaign has received support from some well-known people within the crypto community, including Ripple founder Chris Larsen who donated $11 million worth of XRP. Trump’s chances of winning on Ploymarket are currently 63%, and a whale investor has recently bet $20 million on Trump.
Other market analysts and commentators share Kendrick’s optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in the case of a Trump victory. Bitwise’s executive suggested that Bitcoin might reach $92,000. Crypto exchange Deribit predicts that if Trump is elected, the cryptocurrency will reach $80,000 before November’s end. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, however believes Bitcoin’s upward trend will continue regardless the outcome of the elections.
Crypto PACs slammed for election interference
Summer Lee, Pennsylvania’s Representative Summer Lee has recently criticised crypto-backed Political Action Committees (PACs), for funding ads that were intended to discredit candidates during the primaries of 2024. Rep. Lee, at a virtual event hosted by Public Citizen & Americans for Financial Reform on Oct. 24, criticized the influence of special interest groups such as crypto Super-PACs that targeted legislators seeking reelection.
Rep. Lee claimed that money coming from digital assets is used to intimidate representatives fighting for accountability. She cited examples where crypto-PACs spent more than $3,000,000 to defeat her colleagues Jamaal and Cori Bowman who had lost their primaries in August and June.
Lee believes that this type of behaviour keeps the average person out of politics, while major players dominate. Her comments on the $134,000,000 spent by crypto-interests in an election cycle were also seen as an abuse of the system to hide the real motivations for their involvement in the races.
Lee then pointed out that the Fairshake PAC funded media purchases against Bowman who represents New York’s 16th Congressional District and Bush from Missouri’s 1st Congressional District. Fairshake’s Josh Vlasto referred to her in August as an “anticrypto and Elizabeth Warren-endorsed legislator” after Bush lost. She believes that this is proof of industry intent, which only supports candidates aligned with their interests.
FairshaePAC total contributions in the past 2 years. (Source:FEC )
Lee acknowledges that industry and interest groups have the right to a say in a democracy. However, she believes that these interests should not have an overwhelming influence or dominate any conversation.
Not everyone is concerned about the role of crypto-PACs. Texas Blockchain Council president Lee Bratcher addressed the Permissionless Conference on October 10 and described the PAC activities as a normal part of democratic activity, in which funding is used to secure the time and bandwidth needed for educating elected officials about industry.
Despite the fact that there are just a few weeks left before the US elections, crypto super PACs continue to pour money into either supporting or opposing certain candidates. The early voting has already begun, and many millions of people are likely to vote soon. Control of both the House and Senate are at stake.
Fairshake, along with its affiliate Defend American Jobs, reported that they spent $1.3 Million in five states on Oct. 17 to support various candidates. Fairshake and its affiliate Defend American Jobs spent $1.3 million in five states to back various candidates. Protect Progress, a Fairshake affiliate that also bought media, supported Virginia Representative Suhas subramanyam, and California Representative Rohit Knann.
These crypto-PACs are primarily focused on races for Congress, but their influence extends even to presidential elections. Bitcoin Voter PAC funded recent ads in Texas and Pennsylvania supporting Donald Trump, and Senate candidates.
Polymarket has identified a pro-Trump whale
Polymarket’s representatives identified a whale who was responsible for the $28 million of pro-Trump trades on their platform. The trades, they say, were made by a French national with experience in trading and finance.
A report by The New York Times DealBook revealed that company spokespersons confirmed the trader placed bets using four different accounts: Fredi9999 PrincessCaro and Michie. Investigation found no proof of manipulation, as the trader deliberately spread out his bets to avoid erratic movements in the market. Polymarket contacted the individual and he stated that his positions were based on personal opinions about the US Presidential election in 2024.
Election winner odds (Source: Polymarket)
Polymarket’s betting odds on the presidential elections began to noticeably shift towards former president Donald Trump in October. The company began investigating after this raised serious questions about market manipulation. The investigation had as one of its main objectives to find potential US users of the platform. This is because the platform was primarily designed for international users.
Tarek Msour, founder of Kalshi’s prediction market, however, claimed that Polymarket odds accurately reflect organic market sentiment. Mansour cited data from Kalshi which showed similar trends, with Trump holding a strong lead over Kamalah Harris.
Polymarket changed its odds after Trump’s support surged in early October. This marked the end of a period in which betting margins were narrow between both candidates. Harris held a good lead in August but the race became tighter as September approached.
Critics of prediction markets claim that these are less reliable than polling, and traders place bets based on speculation without solid evidence. However, supporters say that the platforms serve as an important public service. The prediction market’s monetary incentive is also viewed as a better gauge for election sentiment than conventional polls.
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